Bitcoin Price Duality Risks Double Jeopardy
Bitcoin price is not moving with conviction. This may be a sign of waning enthusiasm for the upside or it may be the usual doubt that accompanies a retracement low.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 15h52 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Analysis has been sparse during this period of market uncertainty. So far, price action has conformed to the expectation of the wave count posted in Wednesday’s analysis. The chart event that will invalidate the wave count is a breach of the 1-hour chart’s 200-period moving average (200MA, red).
On Wednesday we discussed the possibility that price may form an additional declining wave before the correction would complete, and that is what unfolded. The market pulled price to the 1-hour 200MA and then bought price up from a strong reversal.
Although price is still unfolding according to our expectations – holding above the 200MA and having pushed higher from yesterday’s low in five waves – there is some concern at the vasillation here below $250. A reason for concern also comes from the Bitstamp exchange price which has remained closer to the lagging BTC-e price than to its usual company alongside Bitfinex. Additionally, Bitstamp is persistently being sold back below $240. A look at today’s Bitstamp depth chart shows a group of large sell orders waiting just above $240 – discouraging to smaller players but attractive to any large buyer with bullish tendencies.
The futures charts have been consistently trading above $240 all day, but the CNY exchanges are below their 1550 CNY psych level. With this duality in the price charts it is difficult to call the next move. xbt.social member "J" presented a thorough moving averages comparison (quoted below).
The current lack of momentum may be a sign of fading upside and soon see price pull below the 200MA. In this case we will shift our focus to the declining scenario and wait for additional confirmation signals of decline. In the meantime, while price holds above the 200MA we expect the current declining subwave to complete near the 200MA and to then push strongly toward $254 (Bitstamp).
xbt.social member contributed analysis:
Trading is a game of probabilities. You don’t have to be right every time. You just have to follow your rules. – Vadym Graifer
Rather than changing our bet in the current chart, analysis suggests we stick to our bullish outlook andonly change to a bearish outlook when the significant (and nearby) 200MA level is breached.
Bitstamp orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume: