比特币的价格基础 Bitcoin Price Fundamentals
Bitcoin price is pushing toward its three-month resistance ceiling. Technical and sentiment analysis argue for a return to decline, and fundamental analysis shows that Bitcoin’s value is more fragile than many realize.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
OKCoin 3Month Futures 4-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Friday’s technical analysis concluded that the outlook for bitcoin price is bearish while price fails to break above the prevailing resistance ceiling (blue down-sloping line in the chart). Going forward, technical analysis will be informed by the position of price in relation to this ceiling: if the market can successfully trade price above it, we can expect continuing advance. As long as price remains below it, we can expect another series of lower lows.
Should price fall away from overhead resistance, the downside target is the 4hr 200-period moving average (red in the chart above).
Yesterday, sentimental analysis considered wider public interest in Bitcoin as reflected in Google search trends. Assuming that the majority of mainstreet uses Google as their go-to search engine, the frequency of searches for the term ‘bitcoin’ has been declining.
Social mood in the Bitcoin ecosystem, it was concluded, is negative. Factions have polarized on either side of the “blocksize debate” and discord is rife. The contentious actions of a few tear-away developers and exchange owners threatens the security and integrity of Bitcoin and renders the commodity money a risky investment vehicle and potentially dangerous to hold.
Store of Value
An outcome of this fundamental insecurity that surrounds Bitcoin is that speculators and investors concerned with the faltering global economy are reluctant to utilize Bitcoin as a safe haven and store of value.
It can be concluded that Bitcoin does not, currently, enjoy much interest from the general public. Nor does it represent a sound store of value to the majority of investors and large investment institutions. Had there not been uncertainty surrounding the integrity of the blockchain – the prospect of a contentious and potentially borked hardfork – we might have seen Bitcoin’s fundamental value reflected in the price chart. Especially so, during the reeling markets of the past nine months.
Instead, due to negative mood and uncertainty, we see a series of lower lows since late 2015. Yes, we will see a future rally driven by Bitcoin’s fundamental value, but while the block chain and its development is threatened by contention and strife, what motivation does a rational investor have to buy with conviction in the face of evident risks?
Bitcoin price remains below a resistance ceiling. Public interest in Bitcoin is low. Negative mood and ecosystem discord has resulted in factionalism that threatens the integrity of the block chain. Bitcoin’s fundamental offerings include a convenient payment network with cryptographic security; programmable money; censorship resistance; and independence from central bank and government control. These benefits require only that we followBitcoin’s core rules of Consensus and Decentralization.
Satoshi Nakamoto’s sole stipulation is that proposed changes to Bitcoin should have “near-unanimous consensus”, and the protocol’s peer-to-peer design requires constant vigilance around the “degree of decentralization” of the network. Without these two core observances the block chain loses integrity, the protocol benefits become less secure and Bitcoin potentially becomes meaningless.
Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume